Last week's dissent tells you the committee sees the trap.
Miran voted to cut. Kashkari and Logan rejected even an easing bias in the statement. That spread of views, inside the same institution, at ...
Friday is the April jobs report.
Weak jobs: cut pressure spikes, but inflation is still above target. Strong jobs: hawks win the argument, hold extends, the repricing squeeze continues.
The Fed's window of neutral is narrowing. The hold is temporary. The question is which data point forces the move.
Weak jobs: cut pressure spikes, but inflation is still above target. Strong jobs: hawks win the argument, hold extends, the repricing squeeze continues.
The Fed's window of neutral is narrowing. The hold is temporary. The question is which data point forces the move.