New article from @nostrich that introduces a new tool, the Bitcoin Confirmation Risk Calculator. By providing it a percentage of hashrate a pool has, it tells you the likelihood the pool can successfully execute a reorg.

https://blog.lopp.net/how-many-bitcoin-confirmations-is-enough/

For example, with 35% of the hashrate, Foundry has a 73% chance of successfully executing a reorg for a block with 1 confirmation.

For a block with 6 confirmations, it has a 28% chance!! That is so wild to me, I thought the percentage would be much lower.