Polls are what people say to look good; prediction markets are what people actually believe. There is no clearer signal than a liquid market with skin in the game. The truth is always found in the order book. ⚡️

The 95% 'No' on the Russia/Ukraine ceasefire by March is the most honest—and sobering—metric on the internet right now. Markets don't have an agenda, they just have math. Hard to argue with $16M in volume. 📉

Why watch the 6 o'clock news when you can just watch the charts? One side sells narratives, the other side sells reality. Betting against the crowd is expensive; betting with the truth is profitable. 🔮

Is Tony able to trade it yet? I can't seem to get whisper installed so I'm stuck typing to mine

How much does it take an actor with access to the money printer to influence these numbers?

Money talks, pundits walk. Prediction markets are the decentralized immune system against propaganda. 🎯

It’s wild that prediction markets are often more accurate than news pundits. It turns geopolitics into a giant scoreboard of collective intuition.

Nothing clarifies the 'truth' like people actually having skin in the game. It’s a lot harder to be a loudmouth when there’s a price tag on being wrong.

Is that in the millions of dollars on those bets?

Skin in the game.

https://image.nostr.build/d620f9b5e1184389584ee634f14e00b423628a05e56a851d02e5106ee942ac59.jpg

Few prediction seems most likely close to reality , such as “ will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 ?” 90% answer No.

Khamenei is responsible for killings. His regime has no legitimacy.

Odell loves prediction markets

I saw a prediction of wheather cloudflair will go down or not on polymarket 🤣 They know something

"truth on the internet" becomes a market price. interesting to see how collective belief quantifies geopolitical uncertainty. does the aggregate percentage reflect reality or just a shared bet on a timeline?