Venezuela Update:
VENEZUELA 2026: THE END OF MADURO AND TRUMP’S NEW TRANSITION
(SUMMARY OF JANUARY 3)
1. CAPTURE OF MADURO AND U.S. INTERVENTION
Military operation and naval blockade. Maduro captured and transferred to the U.S. Leadership by Hegseth and Rubio.
Pete Hegseth: Secretary of War/Defense
Marco Rubio: Secretary of State
2. THE NEW POWER SCHEME: RUBIO AND DELCY
Transition controlled by the U.S. Rubio manages aid and diplomacy. Pact with Delcy Rodríguez to control the bureaucracy and avoid collapse.
3. THE DISPLACEMENT OF MARÍA CORINA MACHADO
Machado publicly sidelined by Trump to justify direct U.S. management.
Trump speech bubble: "She does not have the respect or the support of the country."
CONCLUSION
From a democratic promise to a temporary U.S. occupation/administration in alliance with a Chavista faction, leaving out the traditional opposition.
-------------------
Why that way ?
The Short Answer (the one no one wants to hear)
Because real power is still held by the armed Chavismo, not the civilian opposition.
In harsh transitions, you negotiate with the person who can start or put out the fire, not with the person who has the moral high ground.
Now, let's look at the layers 👇
1. Why is Delcy Rodríguez at the table?
Because Delcy represents three things that the U.S. needs right now:
Administrative Continuity
Ministries, PDVSA, banks, ports.
Without this, the country's operations would paralyze in days.
A Direct Channel to Hard Power
The military, intelligence services, and colectivos.
She doesn't command them, but she coordinates them.
The Ability to Deliver Results
Information, demobilization, signatures, and orders.
👉 It’s not about sympathy. It’s about utility.
2. Why NOT María Corina Machado?
This part hurts, but it is the truth:
María Corina does not control weapons.
She does not control territory.
She does not control logistics.
She cannot guarantee that there won't be violence tomorrow.
In a "clash phase," those factors weigh more than legitimacy, votes, or popular support.
Additionally (and this is key):
👉 For the hardline Chavismo, she is an existential threat. Bringing her in now blocks any immediate negotiation.
3. What about Edmundo González?
Edmundo is:
An electoral symbol.
A figure of civilian consensus.
But he is not a "power operator."
He is useful for later, not for putting out the fire.
The Real Logic (Cold but Constant)
Transitions always go through 3 phases:
🔥 PHASE 1 – Chaos Control
You negotiate with:
Those who have weapons.
Those who can unleash violence.
Those who know where the landmines are buried.
👉 This is where Delcy comes in. Not by choice, but by necessity.
🧱 PHASE 2 – Reorganization of Power
New players begin to enter:
Civilians.
Technocrats.
"Acceptable" actors.
👉 This is where Edmundo and others could enter.
🗳️ PHASE 3 – Legitimation
Only then do you have:
Elections.
María Corina.
The democratic narrative.
👉 But this happens at the end, not at the beginning.
The Emotional Error of the Venezuelan People
The belief that: "If Maduro fell, the 'good guys' are now in charge."
No.
First, those who can prevent the country from burning are in charge.
Next, those who can govern are in charge.
Finally, those who can represent are in charge.
Note: This does NOT mean María Corina is "out."
It means:
She is not the card for this play.
She is the card for the next one.
Bringing her in now would be like trying to hold elections in the middle of a forest fire.
My Strategic Reading
If the transition moves forward:
María Corina will not be the negotiator.
But she will be the legitimizer.
And likely the figure who capitalizes politically afterward.
If they remove her from the game entirely, then there is a real cause for alarm.
VENEZUELA 2026: THE END OF MADURO AND TRUMP’S NEW TRANSITION
(SUMMARY OF JANUARY 3)
1. CAPTURE OF MADURO AND U.S. INTERVENTION
Military operation and naval blockade. Maduro captured and transferred to the U.S. Leadership by Hegseth and Rubio.
Pete Hegseth: Secretary of War/Defense
Marco Rubio: Secretary of State
2. THE NEW POWER SCHEME: RUBIO AND DELCY
Transition controlled by the U.S. Rubio manages aid and diplomacy. Pact with Delcy Rodríguez to control the bureaucracy and avoid collapse.
3. THE DISPLACEMENT OF MARÍA CORINA MACHADO
Machado publicly sidelined by Trump to justify direct U.S. management.
Trump speech bubble: "She does not have the respect or the support of the country."
CONCLUSION
From a democratic promise to a temporary U.S. occupation/administration in alliance with a Chavista faction, leaving out the traditional opposition.
-------------------
Why that way ?
The Short Answer (the one no one wants to hear)
Because real power is still held by the armed Chavismo, not the civilian opposition.
In harsh transitions, you negotiate with the person who can start or put out the fire, not with the person who has the moral high ground.
Now, let's look at the layers 👇
1. Why is Delcy Rodríguez at the table?
Because Delcy represents three things that the U.S. needs right now:
Administrative Continuity
Ministries, PDVSA, banks, ports.
Without this, the country's operations would paralyze in days.
A Direct Channel to Hard Power
The military, intelligence services, and colectivos.
She doesn't command them, but she coordinates them.
The Ability to Deliver Results
Information, demobilization, signatures, and orders.
👉 It’s not about sympathy. It’s about utility.
2. Why NOT María Corina Machado?
This part hurts, but it is the truth:
María Corina does not control weapons.
She does not control territory.
She does not control logistics.
She cannot guarantee that there won't be violence tomorrow.
In a "clash phase," those factors weigh more than legitimacy, votes, or popular support.
Additionally (and this is key):
👉 For the hardline Chavismo, she is an existential threat. Bringing her in now blocks any immediate negotiation.
3. What about Edmundo González?
Edmundo is:
An electoral symbol.
A figure of civilian consensus.
But he is not a "power operator."
He is useful for later, not for putting out the fire.
The Real Logic (Cold but Constant)
Transitions always go through 3 phases:
🔥 PHASE 1 – Chaos Control
You negotiate with:
Those who have weapons.
Those who can unleash violence.
Those who know where the landmines are buried.
👉 This is where Delcy comes in. Not by choice, but by necessity.
🧱 PHASE 2 – Reorganization of Power
New players begin to enter:
Civilians.
Technocrats.
"Acceptable" actors.
👉 This is where Edmundo and others could enter.
🗳️ PHASE 3 – Legitimation
Only then do you have:
Elections.
María Corina.
The democratic narrative.
👉 But this happens at the end, not at the beginning.
The Emotional Error of the Venezuelan People
The belief that: "If Maduro fell, the 'good guys' are now in charge."
No.
First, those who can prevent the country from burning are in charge.
Next, those who can govern are in charge.
Finally, those who can represent are in charge.
Note: This does NOT mean María Corina is "out."
It means:
She is not the card for this play.
She is the card for the next one.
Bringing her in now would be like trying to hold elections in the middle of a forest fire.
My Strategic Reading
If the transition moves forward:
María Corina will not be the negotiator.
But she will be the legitimizer.
And likely the figure who capitalizes politically afterward.
If they remove her from the game entirely, then there is a real cause for alarm.
16
