The DoW and USG’s campaign plan for Iran:
It’s basically the Syria strategy. Degrade Iran’s defenses from as far out as you can. Conduct strikes for years while building a resistance force that’s being recruited, trained and employed to be the ground forces in Iran.
There is at least one Army Special Forces (The Green Berets) Company in the region. Out of the Company’s 6 ODAs (an ODA is the 12 man Special Forces team) at least 3 are deployed with the company.
At least one ODA is running recruitment operations. They’re meeting with the war lords who claim the have ground forces and try to recruit said ground forces. CIA is doing a lot of the heavy lifting but they’re working with the groups the government doesn’t want to admit it’s working with. The CIA gives the Army the less problematic groups.
At least one ODA is conducting training. Running the recruits through a watered down version of Basic Training over the course of about a month (maybe longer depending on the time table). Again, the CIA, specifically Ground Branch, is in charge of this. The ODA is likely tasked out to the CIA on what’s called an Inter Agency mission. This is what my team had done in Jordan before I got there.
One team is developing the leadership and staff of the Partner Force command headquarters.
It will take years to build up a fighting force, and in the meantime, continued US Airstrikes will weaken Iranian defenses, impoverish the people, give many MAMs reasons to sign up for one side or the other. Our side will pay better.
And in about 14 years, give or take a few years, we’ll funny get Regime Change and accept someone from one of the many groups we just got done fighting against for 14 years
They’re just going to hope that the American People get numb to it and move on to the next outrage obsession
OR
Alternate theory, but hear me out.
On February 27th, Trump suspended Anthropic from DoW systems over their stance on autonomous weapon systems. The government immediately signs a deal with OpenAI and on February 28th we’re attacking Iran.
What if they drop the autonomous systems protections and the AI immediately launched strikes on Iran?
Now they’re just fumbling around trying to figure out how to contain it but Pandora’s Box has already been opened.
Kurds?
BLUF: Kurds will be used as an insurgent force in northwestern Iran, likely staging out of Iraq.
I expect Irbil, Iraq to be a central hub for the flow of logistics and troops just as it was for eastern Syria
They’re one of the partner forces I’m sure. How much of their forces and leadership carry over from Syria and Iraq I’m unsure of. There is greater Kurdistan but fractured because of the national borders that divide them.
They’ve been a consistent Partner Force for almost 40 years. Not bad considering they’re commies. But it’s a mutually beneficial relationship. They want autonomy and their own state and we provide them the funding and training to make that happen… slowly.
FM 3-05.130
Army Special Forces Unconventional Warfare
Pay particular attention to Chapter 5 for more in depth understanding on how a prolonged war with Iran will be conducted
For planing purposes, UW takes 14 years from beginning to end. Phases I-IV have been going on for decades. The relationship America has built with the Kurds over four decades is the low key lynch pin to the American Middle East strategy and also containment of Russia’s southwest.
This manual scratches the service pretty deep and gives a lot of information if you know what this kind of strategy can accomplish within a population. But the classified version lays out what you guys can already infer from that information.
It’s basically the Syria strategy. Degrade Iran’s defenses from as far out as you can. Conduct strikes for years while building a resistance force that’s being recruited, trained and employed to be the ground forces in Iran.
There is at least one Army Special Forces (The Green Berets) Company in the region. Out of the Company’s 6 ODAs (an ODA is the 12 man Special Forces team) at least 3 are deployed with the company.
At least one ODA is running recruitment operations. They’re meeting with the war lords who claim the have ground forces and try to recruit said ground forces. CIA is doing a lot of the heavy lifting but they’re working with the groups the government doesn’t want to admit it’s working with. The CIA gives the Army the less problematic groups.
At least one ODA is conducting training. Running the recruits through a watered down version of Basic Training over the course of about a month (maybe longer depending on the time table). Again, the CIA, specifically Ground Branch, is in charge of this. The ODA is likely tasked out to the CIA on what’s called an Inter Agency mission. This is what my team had done in Jordan before I got there.
One team is developing the leadership and staff of the Partner Force command headquarters.
It will take years to build up a fighting force, and in the meantime, continued US Airstrikes will weaken Iranian defenses, impoverish the people, give many MAMs reasons to sign up for one side or the other. Our side will pay better.
And in about 14 years, give or take a few years, we’ll funny get Regime Change and accept someone from one of the many groups we just got done fighting against for 14 years
They’re just going to hope that the American People get numb to it and move on to the next outrage obsession
OR
Alternate theory, but hear me out.
On February 27th, Trump suspended Anthropic from DoW systems over their stance on autonomous weapon systems. The government immediately signs a deal with OpenAI and on February 28th we’re attacking Iran.
What if they drop the autonomous systems protections and the AI immediately launched strikes on Iran?
Now they’re just fumbling around trying to figure out how to contain it but Pandora’s Box has already been opened.
Kurds?
BLUF: Kurds will be used as an insurgent force in northwestern Iran, likely staging out of Iraq.
I expect Irbil, Iraq to be a central hub for the flow of logistics and troops just as it was for eastern Syria
They’re one of the partner forces I’m sure. How much of their forces and leadership carry over from Syria and Iraq I’m unsure of. There is greater Kurdistan but fractured because of the national borders that divide them.
They’ve been a consistent Partner Force for almost 40 years. Not bad considering they’re commies. But it’s a mutually beneficial relationship. They want autonomy and their own state and we provide them the funding and training to make that happen… slowly.
FM 3-05.130
Army Special Forces Unconventional Warfare
Pay particular attention to Chapter 5 for more in depth understanding on how a prolonged war with Iran will be conducted
For planing purposes, UW takes 14 years from beginning to end. Phases I-IV have been going on for decades. The relationship America has built with the Kurds over four decades is the low key lynch pin to the American Middle East strategy and also containment of Russia’s southwest.
This manual scratches the service pretty deep and gives a lot of information if you know what this kind of strategy can accomplish within a population. But the classified version lays out what you guys can already infer from that information.
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