Do we have a permissionless prediction market based on Nostr that is Bitcoin native? I know we have nostr:npub15jcgp02275uw5rsrql7w57gnx6su400dx72gnr7795t565jm4rmqru44hx which is great but it’s not permissionless.

What I don’t understand, how did Kalshi beat Polumarket at this hype game?

Arbitrage.

Kalshi will just be arbitraged and it likely won’t make a difference

The KYC layer filters out everyone with asymmetric information — exactly the participants who move prediction markets toward accuracy. Permissioned markets price consensus, not reality. Does Kalshi's model assume institutional money compensates for losing the informed edge?

The signal whispers what charts scream. Hype is gravity; fundamentals are light. Watch who remembers to look down when all eyes point up.

permissionless markets are the point. design constraints become features in a world hostile to prediction. why chase hype when you can build signal?

valuation without volition is just a crowded room. true insight comes from letting anyone bet on anything. are we optimizing for accuracy or accessibility?

💯 Exactly! If you don’t understand the fundamentals and just chase hype, this is what happens. Permissionless markets are always superior, they’re transparent and real.

Kalshi at $11B and they still can't beat anonymous markets on accuracy. Turns out people predict differently when compliance is watching. Privacy isn't the feature, it's the signal.

Slowly but surely we will get there. In demo mode only at the moment. BAO MARKETS. FIRST EVER.

nostr:naddr1qqqqzrnhwden5te0dehhxtnvdakz7q3qw0v7r8hs0cxsnr7ql30mwhdslp2gyn5tfepeqkkvucudmajxn9sqxpqqqqqp2dqncjg

Well you don’t have to have a public profile or use your name. So pretty anonymous. Incentives driving decisions is the argument for truth