Are you still not getting what he’s saying? Were you not around for SegWit to see how history is rhyming?
If a chain split occurs because minority hash (less than 51%) signals for BIP-110, there’...
What Luke is referring to is a permanent chain split, not a temporary chain divergence that will eventually realign with the legacy chain regardless of BIP-110 succeeding or failing. And if the game theory holds (meaning pools are rational actors), no chain split will occur because they will blink and get in line before activation day.
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