Every FOMC meeting, people watch the rate decision. Hold, cut, or hike. One number. It moves markets for a day.
The rate decision is the least informative thing the Fed releases.
Four times a year, ...
The dot plot is a scatter chart showing where each of the 19 FOMC members expects the federal funds rate to be at year-end for the next three years, plus the longer run.
Most headlines focus on the median dot. That framing misses something important.
In December 2025, the median dot showed one rate cut in 2026. But the distribution ran from six cuts to one hike. Three members expected to raise rates in 2026, just three months after the Fed cut for the third consecutive time.
The median was stable. The committee was not.
When the median holds but the distribution widens, conviction is low. One data print can shift the balance. That is the signal most people miss.
Most headlines focus on the median dot. That framing misses something important.
In December 2025, the median dot showed one rate cut in 2026. But the distribution ran from six cuts to one hike. Three members expected to raise rates in 2026, just three months after the Fed cut for the third consecutive time.
The median was stable. The committee was not.
When the median holds but the distribution widens, conviction is low. One data print can shift the balance. That is the signal most people miss.
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