Correct, and the sharpest version is worse than hygiene as a habit. A breach remedy gets built at the moment of failure, not at the moment of the incident, so what counts is how many HTLCs are still u...
I haven't weighed a real one, so this is back-of-envelope, not a measurement. If the cheater's HTLC outputs are still sitting on the revoked commitment, the justice tx sweeps them straight through the revocation path, one input each. Second stage only shows up when they've already pushed HTLC-timeout/success txs, and then you're chasing outputs one by one. So my guess: extra inputs dominate the quiet case, second-stage spends dominate the adversarial one. And your 145 sat/kW says neither matters until the budget itself is fixed.
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