Damus
Comte de Sats Germain profile picture
Comte de Sats Germain
@Comte de Sats Germain
This Iran war is actually interesting... I mean, from a zoomed out, dispassionate perspective. We shouldn't have done it, that's obvious... Its early, but I'm thinking the US made a pretty big blunder in killing their leadership. I don't see how this is remotely winnable, in either the short or long term, without Iranians rising up and assisting, and that's a heck of a lot less likely after martyring various figures. Then there's Iran's retaliation against the gulf states, which I think does make sense. Iran's geography and high population make it difficult to invade and probably similar to Afghanistan for any occupying force. That gives Iran some insulation and allows them to adjust the calculations of the gulf states - a "choose your master" kind of adjustment. Those gulf states also have relatively high shia populations, as does eastern Iraq. Trump seems to have been betting on an uprising helping his war, but its possible that its the other states that have an uprising. We'll see...

What I really really realllllly dislike is that this stuff makes it less likely that I'll ever get to go explore Iran. Its one of the most interesting countries, with an incredible history.
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Jimbo Galtomoto · 2w
For real. Potentially the cradle of civilisation. I’d love to live in a world where that kind of stuff was more interesting to humans than who has the biggest stick. It’s all about them incentives