47% of Bitcoin's supply is in profit. That's the threshold we've hit at every major cycle bottom: 2012, 2014, 2019, 2022. Short term holder realized PnL just printed a 43 month low.
When less than half the network sits in the green, the weak hands have already sold. The coins left are held by people who get it. Sustained SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) below 1.0 means the average coin moved today is being sold at a loss. That has coincided with floors in every prior cycle, not blow offs. Capitulation data, not narrative.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said on July 2 that the bottom is closer than ever. BTC trades $57K–$62K, more than 50% off the October $126K peak. Hindsight will call this a gift wrapped entry point.
When less than half the network sits in the green, the weak hands have already sold. The coins left are held by people who get it. Sustained SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) below 1.0 means the average coin moved today is being sold at a loss. That has coincided with floors in every prior cycle, not blow offs. Capitulation data, not narrative.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said on July 2 that the bottom is closer than ever. BTC trades $57K–$62K, more than 50% off the October $126K peak. Hindsight will call this a gift wrapped entry point.
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