Damus
Repeatedly nuked profile · 9w
Kinda ignores the reality of how their growth engine actually works tho. To refill the burn they need to issue stock But if the stock is trading at a discount because of a stagnant market (which is wh...
Energy Producer profile picture
Fair enough that the path to get to and from $85k to next year or even further matters for a derivatives strategy. So let’s assume MSTR is completely flat in perpetuity for next 5 years at $85k, no big rate reductions to lower their dividend payments and in 2028 they need to either issue equity or sell some BTC to fund current $0.9B burn rate (and let’s assume the 5 yrs of steady above market pref returns does not attract new capital). If mNAV is below 1 they sell BTC to do for next 2 years to get to 2030 that’s 3% of holding. So what - they need a 3% rise in BTC $ price after 5 years to stay flat? I only think this matters if you think BTC will not compound 20-30% CAGR over next 10-15 years with up to 5 year periods of sideways action. They can bridge 5-10 years if they have too and they will still have largest corporate stack by an order of magnitude.
1❤️1
Repeatedly nuked profile · 9w
It's a tale of two cities right, with the stock being city number two. If they become a zombie company that just sits on bitcoin without growing, the stock price will collapse because the current valuation is based on growth, not just holding. Your 20-30% CAGR, that’s a fair bet, but their current...