YES

what does alpha mean in this context?

Probably

Not dumb. I think a lot of people will be shocked in 2025.

S2F is not a good model to follow. The clusters are not scale invariant. https://image.nostr.build/afb4ee9076986796e5b229431255bd4a9b15535bb822e85e23b22a08985ef0bb.png

Imagine if every doctor in America suddenly stopped offering vaccines That’s the level of about-face Wall Street did on Bitcoin between the last cycle and now I can’t help but think this is not priced in

https://media.tenor.com/jnDUDCkr8BkAAAAC/say-it-aint-so-weezer.gif

As an omega … no idea 🤷🏻‍♀️

Nope! It's a good 🧠 exercise

All models are wrong but I think power law is interesting.

Yes

Nope. 2025 is poised for face-rippings.

https://m.primal.net/MCgI.jpg

It would be a hilarious outcome if it validated 😂

Why would anyone abandon pure grade hopium

I never stopped believing in it. The ftx fraud era was the reason why it broke

I have always found it to be a useful model. Human error and malfeasant behaviour cannot be modelled. People like to dunk on it because they don't like the Y factor. Being time.

This is the way: #Bitcoin, #Lightning, #Fedimint.

If there is any pattern in this than the next peak will likely be lower, since the last green low was also lower "than expected", but stil a formidable price 🤑

Yep I'm with you on the dude!

We're allowed to hit around $890,050 this epoch but not a fiat penny more Sad very depressing no cent:sat parity this epoch

this note is how everyone readopts it 😂

like clockwork.

No, it's the other way around - being dumb is what makes you think this.

I’m thinking we are either underwhelmed ($125k) or overwhelmed ($500k+) Just my two sats

I always thought stock to flow and power law, and whatever rational root’s spiral graph thing is, are all useful tools, but none should be taken as the gospel. It’s funny to me so much tribalism emerged to attack or defend each one. I just thought they all had some value but weren’t perfect ...