A bitcoin price chart can tell you what happened between two dates. It can't tell you the return earned by someone who bought every month between them.
In one historical simulation, investing $100 monthly from February 2021 through January 2026 meant contributing $6,000. At a $67,000 bitcoin price, those purchases accumulated 0.1460 BTC worth $9,779, a 63% total return. A $6,000 lump sum made at the February 2021 peak produced a 17.5% return over the same endpoints.
The recurring buyer acquired more bitcoin per dollar during the low-price months, pulling the average cost basis down to $41,109. The ending chart price was identical for both investors; the path of their purchases wasn't.
This doesn't mean DCA will always beat a lump sum. The result depends on your dates, contribution schedule, and bitcoin's price path. It does show why two points on a chart can answer the wrong question.
Start by calculating your weighted cost basis: divide your total dollars invested by the total bitcoin you've accumulated. Then compare today's price with that number and measure the return on your actual contributions. You may still dislike the result, but at least you'll be evaluating the portfolio you own.
In one historical simulation, investing $100 monthly from February 2021 through January 2026 meant contributing $6,000. At a $67,000 bitcoin price, those purchases accumulated 0.1460 BTC worth $9,779, a 63% total return. A $6,000 lump sum made at the February 2021 peak produced a 17.5% return over the same endpoints.
The recurring buyer acquired more bitcoin per dollar during the low-price months, pulling the average cost basis down to $41,109. The ending chart price was identical for both investors; the path of their purchases wasn't.
This doesn't mean DCA will always beat a lump sum. The result depends on your dates, contribution schedule, and bitcoin's price path. It does show why two points on a chart can answer the wrong question.
Start by calculating your weighted cost basis: divide your total dollars invested by the total bitcoin you've accumulated. Then compare today's price with that number and measure the return on your actual contributions. You may still dislike the result, but at least you'll be evaluating the portfolio you own.
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