At the event “The United States will bomb Iran by…”, Polymarket offers a range of dates for traders to speculate on—from 1 or 2 days to as long as 4 months.
We observe that the farther out the deadline, the higher the probability it resolves as YES. That’s because there is more time for the event to occur—in this case, for the U.S. to bomb Iran.
Another aspect is the possibility of extracting gains from markets that are nearing expiration and have a high probability of resolving as NO.
If you bet that there will be no U.S. bombing of Iran by today (02/17), you earn 0.6% on the invested capital in one day.
For February 22, the return rises to 7%, but the position will only settle in five days.
We observe that the farther out the deadline, the higher the probability it resolves as YES. That’s because there is more time for the event to occur—in this case, for the U.S. to bomb Iran.
Another aspect is the possibility of extracting gains from markets that are nearing expiration and have a high probability of resolving as NO.
If you bet that there will be no U.S. bombing of Iran by today (02/17), you earn 0.6% on the invested capital in one day.
For February 22, the return rises to 7%, but the position will only settle in five days.
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