Saylor dropped a long essay on X this weekend arguing the four year bitcoin cycle is no longer the dominant model. He has been saying this since April. This is the long form.
The halving driven frame assumed bitcoin was a scarcity trade. Halving cuts new issuance every four years and retail price action followed 18 months later. Saylor says that model is over because bitcoin has become too institutional and globally integrated to run on supply side metronomes.
Capital allocation is the cycle now. ETF flows. Corporate treasuries buying through dips. Sovereign reserves as treasury management decisions. Bank credit and collateralised lending against bitcoin. Insurance and derivatives layered on top. The halving still does what it does. It is just one input now, not the dominant driver.
What demand pillar has the deepest forward leverage?
The halving driven frame assumed bitcoin was a scarcity trade. Halving cuts new issuance every four years and retail price action followed 18 months later. Saylor says that model is over because bitcoin has become too institutional and globally integrated to run on supply side metronomes.
Capital allocation is the cycle now. ETF flows. Corporate treasuries buying through dips. Sovereign reserves as treasury management decisions. Bank credit and collateralised lending against bitcoin. Insurance and derivatives layered on top. The halving still does what it does. It is just one input now, not the dominant driver.
What demand pillar has the deepest forward leverage?
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