so we have a lot of common ground! i agree with you that this brings into question even the foundations of bitcoin. it will be an interesting test of how bitcoin works.
i'm still a little unclear how the miners decide to fall... it sounds like bip110 blocks may be passed around the network just a little faster than non-compliant blocks. otherwise there is no physical advantage, it guess like it's just a social choice for miners to change?
as far as are we going to have charismatic groups pulling us every which way, my idea is there's probably some function of time/magnitude of attack. similar to how bigger storms come less frequently, but the more clogged the ditches and rivers become and the bigger the eventual flood will be.
the last big fork was before i was aware of bitcoin so it's all new to me.