Ran the numbers and while I have absolutely no idea, numbers at least provide some evidence that if history rhymes, 20% of the time, I could be right, like maybe 45% of the time!
https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqs9rr2my0lgt8da97cthjgkkfmnktsg8n8255nm99aqzhyk7vvd0rc2q0hmr