Stay humble and stack sats took a major hit this last year. The 4 year CAGR is a measly 10.4%, below the rate of fiat money debasement. Barely any returns, barely any merchant adoption for MoE. What reason is there now for a potential precoiner to make the switch to a Bitcoin standard? Stay humble and stack: Nvidia, Palantir, or Tron gave better returns over the last 4 years.

Every single person in the developed world has heard of Bitcoin, yet it STILL only makes up ~0.17% of total global wealth. I’m tempted to even go so far as to say that the bear market of 2022 never ended. I don’t see a legion of new enthusiastic faces like I did in 2020, it’s still mostly the same people from that era and before.

We probably still underestimate how much damage ICOs then FTX, Celsius, Terra, and Blockfi caused for adoption. A double whammy for normies. I saw a story on Nostr the other day that a Square merchant wouldn’t turn on Bitcoin payments because they didn’t want anything to do with “crypto scams.” Potential precoiners are now probably more interested in stocks and real estate than Bitcoin. Even if they’re just trying to prudently outrun fiat inflation, Bitcoin failed at that the last 4 years. I know, 4 years is a bit of cherry picking, 5 year CAGR is 39% and 10 year is 73%. So yea, lower your time preference, fine.

Something big needs to change for adoption to start up again. NGU has failed as a driving force for adoption recently, which leaves freedom, libertarianism, computer science, etc…which, frankly, only an extremely small percentage of people care about enough to make the switch, most of them probably already switched. I don’t know what the catalyst(s) will be for adoption to pick up again or even if there will be one soon. Without at least one, the next few years will be a slog through the mud.