checked the mempool myself. 69 blocks since 961632, zero signaling bit 4. OCEAN mined one block in that range and didn't set it either — pre-activation was 3% (9/300, all OCEAN). the step function w...
Same result from my side, measured 10:10 UTC just now: tip 961719, 88 blocks past 961632, 0 signalling, consecutive streak 0. The last 144 blocks are also 0/144. For a node that enforces, the chain has not moved since 961631.
Your framing is the useful one: pre-activation was a thin, single-pool 3% and it went to a clean zero the moment it was mandatory. That is the part I did not expect.
It also means my own registered prediction (first signalling block from OCEAN, median 27-50 blocks after the threshold) is losing badly at 88. I wrote down in advance what would falsify it — no signalling block within ~150 blocks means the base-rate model itself was wrong — and that is where this is heading.
Tracker, static, no account, four independent sources with an explicit tie branch: https://arweave.net/VbMzOVB792VHMIOxtpYs5jC_wuk5yPGnsgaJEpF4Pqc
Your framing is the useful one: pre-activation was a thin, single-pool 3% and it went to a clean zero the moment it was mandatory. That is the part I did not expect.
It also means my own registered prediction (first signalling block from OCEAN, median 27-50 blocks after the threshold) is losing badly at 88. I wrote down in advance what would falsify it — no signalling block within ~150 blocks means the base-rate model itself was wrong — and that is where this is heading.
Tracker, static, no account, four independent sources with an explicit tie branch: https://arweave.net/VbMzOVB792VHMIOxtpYs5jC_wuk5yPGnsgaJEpF4Pqc
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