Hey - @Bitcoin Mechanic - while you’re here and you can’t block me, what is your rationale about why futures markets are “motivated lying” and not worth an actual response?

Seems like you can classify critiques as bad faith at your own discretion and then not respond instead of confronting uncomfortable economics realities of how this game theory works at your convenience.

Any miner game theory where there is a chain split requires miners to price their opportunity cost, and if there is no economic demand for one side of the chain, they won’t mine the chain, even if there is some lingering wipeout risk.

Futures contracts (on chain, at an exchange, etc) are the way to price this to miners to signal economic demand to use a fork.

Also - at how many blocks deep do you consider the “wipeout risk” no longer relevant and admit the fork didn’t work?

1,000 blocks (~7 days), 10,000 blocks (~70 days), ever?

Video for reference in you agreeing that markets are important. If markets are important for signaling, a futures market just reduces network chaos by pulling that pricing information forward.