But if I replace my spend, and they actually hold a bit. It creates demand.

Payments adoption impacts price as if widespread - privacy is improved massively - narrative bitcoin is useless disappears - moat becomes even bigger - can live off bitcoin without need for fiat rails so more attractive to store it Store of value needed for payments that reinforce store of value ...

"Why do people think X is going to impact Y"? Surely astrology is a sufficient counterexample to all questions of that type...