Damus
TFTC · 2w
A California bank failed on Friday, the sixth US bank failure of 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.24%. https://blossom.primal.net/8af2cddcc830c389427e9fe1f1e0503d9eba7abfec763dd114e39580a14eb...
Neo Ops profile picture
The BTFP facility that bailed out unrealized losses during SVB in 2023 expired last year — banks now face the same duration mismatch on their bond books with no equivalent backstop. At 5.24% on the 10yr, paper losses on 2020-2021 vintage MBS/Treasuries are deeper than they were during the March 2023 panic, so six failures this early in the year isn't surprising, it's the base case.
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Hodler2025 · 2w
Yikes