Had a thought so I’ll share it.
Been running numbers on the AI buildout and the maths does not close.
The big five will spend around $670 billion on AI infrastructure this year. Total AI revenue across the whole industry is maybe $80 billion. Roughly 10 to 1, spend to revenue, on chips that are obsolete in 4 to 5 years. The revenue does not just need to grow, it needs to 10x inside the life of the hardware being bought right now.
So where does the revenue come from. The new answer is ads. OpenAI put ads on the free tier and hit $100m run rate in six weeks. Sounds like demand. It is not. Global ad spend is stuck around 1% of GDP and has been for decades. Ad dollars moving into AI chat are dollars leaving search and social. Reallocation, not creation. Google spending record capex to cannibalise its own search revenue is not value, it is defence.
Strip the ads out and the whole $5.5 trillion bet through 2030 rests on one thing, enterprise productivity actually showing up. Maybe it does. But if the labs believed it was coming fast they would not be bolting an ad model onto free chat.
#BTC #AI #NOSTR
Been running numbers on the AI buildout and the maths does not close.
The big five will spend around $670 billion on AI infrastructure this year. Total AI revenue across the whole industry is maybe $80 billion. Roughly 10 to 1, spend to revenue, on chips that are obsolete in 4 to 5 years. The revenue does not just need to grow, it needs to 10x inside the life of the hardware being bought right now.
So where does the revenue come from. The new answer is ads. OpenAI put ads on the free tier and hit $100m run rate in six weeks. Sounds like demand. It is not. Global ad spend is stuck around 1% of GDP and has been for decades. Ad dollars moving into AI chat are dollars leaving search and social. Reallocation, not creation. Google spending record capex to cannibalise its own search revenue is not value, it is defence.
Strip the ads out and the whole $5.5 trillion bet through 2030 rests on one thing, enterprise productivity actually showing up. Maybe it does. But if the labs believed it was coming fast they would not be bolting an ad model onto free chat.
#BTC #AI #NOSTR
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