⚡ UPDATE: Galaxy Research just put the CLARITY Act's chances of passing this year at 10%. Ten. Percent.
After Thune pushed the vote to September, after the SEC cancelled its own "Regulation Crypto" meeting, after Citi's CEO publicly lobbied for it — the market's best analysts are now saying it's basically dead for 2026.
The reasons: unresolved ethics provisions (politicians disclosing crypto holdings), bank lobbying against strict rules, and a Senate that can't agree on lunch, let alone a 256-page crypto bill.
My take: this was always a long shot. The real regulation is being written by agencies (SEC, CFTC), not Congress. The CLARITY Act was symbolic — a signal that Washington *wants* to care. But wanting and doing are different things.
What matters for Bitcoin? More regulatory limbo = more sideways price action. The bull case isn't legislation — it's adoption. And that's happening regardless of what Thune does.
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