Not sure what that has to do with it? Those are global companies and they are actively ditching the dollar.
So they owning btc has no effect on us treasury or does it? If they piled into Japanese yen...
Yeah sorry, my reply got sent before finishing.
$22 Trillion in gold now at $3300/oz. Revaluation is going to be some multiple on that - 2X to maybe? 5X. I’ve heard 10X thrown around but I don’t know.
That’s getting you to $44T-$110T market cap but remember the US has, theoretically, ~5% of the above ground supply (a bigger share of good reserves but good is fungible so that can’t easily change); that’s not enough for them to peg the dollar and be able to defend it against the whole world when you’ve just 2X-5Xed your competitors holdings in the same move and given huge incentive for miners to go and increase supply. They would have to massively print and buy first which would be too destructive to the dollar for that to even be an option.
Bitcoin would have to revalue at least to gold parity and likely exceed it in the end. Now that $44T-$110T would come down as they dump gold and Bitcoin is quite inelastic - sure some people would sell at $500k or $1M or whatever but if the shift is to BTC, no-one who holds a stack is going to sell it all out for fiat regardless of the price. Why would they? They’re going to have not only a lot of monetary wealth, but also the power that comes along with it. You’d see exchanges running dry and a perpetual bid on any and all supply after the US intentions got out.
So I think the corporates holding it will be the primary targets. Maybe they let the ETFs survive so the stock markets don’t implode and it gives a place for retail/insurers etc to get exposure, but the exchanges will be folded into the banks and Microstrategy could easily be nationalised.
You say that would be Tea Party 2.0 - possibly, losing the global reserve would more likely result in that and that’s a far likelier outcome of the “do nothing” route. But I think the American people would end up even richer provided they could still get exposure. Other countries who have zero corn and don’t get it will likely persecute existing HODLers trying to get a stack for themselves so the US could also become a safe haven bringing more in.
Basically if they want to repeg the dollar, gold is a failure scenario. You just enrich your competitors in a market you can’t corner, on an asset that requires real world security to move, and where the additional supply is largely in others hands. Bitcoin is the only feasible path.
It avoids the movement issues, coming from the lower base it’s much easier to get a sizeable stake, and you’ve got levers of the State to do things (like nationalisation) that your competitors don’t (who is Russia going to seize coins from?).
$22 Trillion in gold now at $3300/oz. Revaluation is going to be some multiple on that - 2X to maybe? 5X. I’ve heard 10X thrown around but I don’t know.
That’s getting you to $44T-$110T market cap but remember the US has, theoretically, ~5% of the above ground supply (a bigger share of good reserves but good is fungible so that can’t easily change); that’s not enough for them to peg the dollar and be able to defend it against the whole world when you’ve just 2X-5Xed your competitors holdings in the same move and given huge incentive for miners to go and increase supply. They would have to massively print and buy first which would be too destructive to the dollar for that to even be an option.
Bitcoin would have to revalue at least to gold parity and likely exceed it in the end. Now that $44T-$110T would come down as they dump gold and Bitcoin is quite inelastic - sure some people would sell at $500k or $1M or whatever but if the shift is to BTC, no-one who holds a stack is going to sell it all out for fiat regardless of the price. Why would they? They’re going to have not only a lot of monetary wealth, but also the power that comes along with it. You’d see exchanges running dry and a perpetual bid on any and all supply after the US intentions got out.
So I think the corporates holding it will be the primary targets. Maybe they let the ETFs survive so the stock markets don’t implode and it gives a place for retail/insurers etc to get exposure, but the exchanges will be folded into the banks and Microstrategy could easily be nationalised.
You say that would be Tea Party 2.0 - possibly, losing the global reserve would more likely result in that and that’s a far likelier outcome of the “do nothing” route. But I think the American people would end up even richer provided they could still get exposure. Other countries who have zero corn and don’t get it will likely persecute existing HODLers trying to get a stack for themselves so the US could also become a safe haven bringing more in.
Basically if they want to repeg the dollar, gold is a failure scenario. You just enrich your competitors in a market you can’t corner, on an asset that requires real world security to move, and where the additional supply is largely in others hands. Bitcoin is the only feasible path.
It avoids the movement issues, coming from the lower base it’s much easier to get a sizeable stake, and you’ve got levers of the State to do things (like nationalisation) that your competitors don’t (who is Russia going to seize coins from?).
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