We are now well beyond the most optimistic scenarios. Current situation is between SIEGE and IRAQ 1, with the potential to get significantly worse.

The biggest dissonance is how well markets are taking everything. At some point oil is going to wake up to supply reality. Strategic reserves are not infinite. AI IPOs might provide a distraction for a couple more months... but my guess is that after the summer financial markets will start to price the real impact of this war.