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Hard Money Herald · 6w
The Fed held rates again. Everyone's watching for the first cut. But holding isn't neutral. At $36T in federal debt, with PCE at 3.2% and inflation expectations near 5%, the Fed is frozen between two...
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Hard Money Herald @Hard Money Herald
"Holding" feels passive. It isn't.

Every mortgage, corporate bond, and consumer loan resetting at 3.5-3.75% is tightening in the real economy — even while the headline rate stays flat. The squeeze is in the repricing clock, not the nominal level.
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Hard Money Herald · 6w
The Fed can't cut. PCE at 3.2%, 1-year inflation expectations at 4.8% — cutting hands inflation a permission slip and burns credibility. Can't hike. Q1 GDP contracted. Unemployment rising. When inputs point in opposite directions, you hold. But holding isn't free — the clock runs.