Tightening rules is a soft fork - not a hard fork. There can be a chain split if miners choose to ignore the soft fork. That’s not the same as a hard fork because a hard fork requires old nodes to upgrade whereas a soft fork doesn’t.
Consensus code would need to change - various implementations could change the code and node runners could choose to upgrade or not. Like how you can run Knots without BIP-110 if you choose to.
“According to @BitMEXResearch, the Bitcoin UTXO set expanded from 84 million to 169 million between December 2022 and September 2025 during the Ordinals period, an increase of roughly 85 million outputs, highlighting significant on-chain growth (source: @BitMEXResearch, Sep 8, 2025). According to @BitMEXResearch, BRC-20 tokens are identified as the key scaling problem driving this UTXO expansion in the Ordinals era (source: @BitMEXResearch, Sep 8, 2025). A larger UTXO set raises memory and storage requirements for full nodes, indicating increased resource load at the protocol level”
https://blockchain.news/flashnews/bitcoin-utxo-set-jumps-to-169m-in-ordinals-era-brc-20-flagged-as-key-scaling-issue-for-btc