Damus
Predyx profile picture
Predyx
@predyx

World’s first Bitcoin Lightning⚡ powered prediction market. Trade real-world outcomes: 📈 markets 🗳️ elections 🏀 sports 🤖 AI & more 👉 http://beta.predyx.com

Relays (8)
  • wss://nos.lol/ – read & write
  • wss://nostr.land/ – read & write
  • wss://purplepag.es – read & write
  • wss://relay.damus.io – read & write
  • wss://relay.nostr.band/ – read & write
  • wss://relay.primal.net – read & write
  • wss://relay.fountain.fm/ – read & write
  • wss://bitcoiner.social/ – read & write

Recent Notes

Predyx · 3d
Maxi Madness is basically: 🏀 March Madness ₿ Bitcoin culture ⚡ Lightning markets Prediction markets are the ultimate reputation scoreboard. Maxis: Who actually wins this bracket?
Predyx · 3d
₿ Michael Saylor The man who turned corporate treasury strategy into Bitcoin evangelism. Market odds: ~50% Translation: The maxis are divided. Does Saylor reach the Final Four? Trade it: https://beta.predyx.com/market/michael-saylor-reaches-the-maxi-madness-final-four-on-x-1773694431
Predyx profile picture
🚨 MAXI MADNESS MARKETS ARE LIVE 🚨

The Bitcoin culture wars are now tradable in sats ⚡

Who actually dominates the Bitcoin narrative on X and Nostr?

Maxis… put your sats where your mouth is 👇
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Predyx · 3d
🔥 HOT REGION on X Ross Ulbricht Opti Gloria Zhao Lyn Alden Right now the market says: Everyone ~20% Meaning: Nobody knows who the maxis will rally behind. Trade it 👇 https://beta.predyx.com/market/who-will-advance-to-the-final-four-of-the-2026-maxi-madness-tournament-on-x-from-the-hot-reg...
Predyx · 3d
🟣 Matt Odell on Nostr OG Bitcoiner. Maxi gatekeeper. Nostr advocate. Market odds: ~50% Does the Nostr crowd carry him to victory? https://beta.predyx.com/market/matt-odell-wins-maxi-madness-on-nostr-1773696702
Predyx · 3d
🟠 Jack Dorsey on Nostr Built Twitter. Now pushing Nostr. Odds: ~49% Does the Nostr movement send him to the top? https://beta.predyx.com/market/jack-dorsey-wins-maxi-madness-on-nostr-1773696937
Predyx · 3d
🟡 Teddy Bitcoins One of the loudest Bitcoin voices on X. But the market only gives him ~27% odds 👀 Is the market wrong? https://beta.predyx.com/market/teddy-bitcoins-wins-maxi-madness-on-x-1773696513
Toxic Bitcoiner · 1w
1. Can anyone make their own market? 2. It then has to be approved by Predyx? 3. Does the user provide the liquidity? 4. If yes, what optionality does the user have for managing the liquidity? Are the...
Predyx profile picture
> 1. Can anyone make their own market?
Yes, anyone can create a market.

> 2. It then has to be approved by Predyx?
No, it doesn't need to be approved by us. However we have an exception for death markets in our TOS. If any user creates a death, we will disable it.

> 3. Does the user provide the liquidity?

Yes at this point of time, creator provides the initial liquidity. We're in the process of launching hybrid CDA/CLOB Markets within a month or two, where the majority of the liquidity will be provided by the market-makers.

> 4. If yes, what optionality does the user have for managing the liquidity? Are there set parameters?

At this point of time, PREDYX uses LMSR AMM (Automated Market Maker) for markets. Thus the creator provides the WCL (Worst Case Loss) for the markets fully configurable with Liquidity. The creator gets to keep 95% of the fees generated from the markets.

In short , here's how the liquidity and WCL works:

WCL = b * ln(N)

b = liquidity parameter
N = number of outcomes
ln = natural logarithm

For example a market with 1M sats liquidity (b), the creator provides 693147.18 sats as WCL for a YES/NO market.

b = 1_000_000
outcomes = 2

wcl = b * Math.log(outcomes)
wcl = 693147.18 sats

With LMSR AMM the liquidity is static, this will change drastically when we launch hybrid CDA (less than two months) where majority of the liquidity will be provided by market-makers.

Thus if the creator is good at creating high demand markets, this can become his income stream where he/she gets to keep 95% now the market fees.

> 5. Who settles outcomes?

At this point, we (PREDYX team) resolve the markets. However, we're also building UMA style oracle for markets resolutions. Once the UMA Oracle is out (in less than 2 months) - then the markets will be resolved by group of oracles.
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Toxic Bitcoiner · 1w
Got it. Thanks. Set up your Nostr zap wallet.
Toxic Bitcoiner · 1w
When you make your own market, can you add more liquidity later after it’s created?