Trading halt: "Will BIP-110 activate and be enforced on Bitcoin by Sept 1 - 7, 2026?"
Trading is paused effective now. Positions and balances are unchanged. Nothing has settled.
Why: BIP-110 proponents have announced a hard fork with a PoW change. This market defines Bitcoin as the chain with the greatest cumulative proof of work. The fork keeps the shared history and 1-to-1 balances, but from the split it accrues work under a different function. Measured in SHA-256 work, its total freezes at the fork block while the incumbent chain keeps compounding. The SHA-256 chain is strictly heavier from the first post-fork block, and the gap grows every block.
Shared history does not transfer the name. BCH and BSV kept the chain data, credited every holder 1 to 1, competed in the same work function, and still never held the most cumulative work. A fork that leaves SHA-256 is not in that race. Under this market's rules it is a different asset, and BIP-110 activating there cannot satisfy the Yes condition.
The only remaining path to Yes is enforcement by the heaviest chain during the evaluation window, 64 blocks after activation height 965664, expected early September.
If that path closes definitively before the window, we may resolve early. Any early resolution will be published with full written reasoning at least 24 hours before settlement. Otherwise the market resolves at the window, per the criteria as written.
Criteria:
https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509?ref=PREDYX9ZWAIELT
