If we nuke New York every year, think about how good it is for business

Think of all the jobs created cleaning up all the rubble

Think of all the mortuaries that will have to deal with all the dead bodies

think of all the construction workers having to rebuild huge sections of the city every year

Isn’t the destruction of durable goods good for our economy? 😊😊😊

every empire that ever waged a war while running 120% debt to GDP learned the same lesson

empires don’t collapse from the battlefield. they collapse from the balance sheet.

day 35 of the Iran war and the situation is spiraling

an F-15E just went down over central Iran today, the first confirmed US fighter jet loss of the conflict. a second plane crashed near the Strait of Hormuz. one pilot recovered, the other is still missing.

meanwhile Iran hit Kuwait’s main refinery with drones, struck a gas facility in the UAE, and launched another barrage at Saudi Arabia’s eastern province. Bahrain activated air raid sirens for the second time this week.

Brent crude is sitting at $112.42, up $34 from a year ago. strait traffic has collapsed from 138 vessels per day to somewhere between 10 and 20, which is a 90% reduction in throughput for a chokepoint that handles 20% of global oil supply.

Iran is running a permission based transit system now: Chinese, Russian, Indian, Pakistani, and Filipino flagged ships can pass. everyone else sits and waits. the UK hosted a 40 country summit yesterday to discuss reopening the strait and accomplished exactly nothing. Trump wasn’t even on the call because he says the blocked strait “doesn’t affect the US.”

Trump is now threatening to hit Iranian power plants, desalination facilities, and bridges if Iran doesn’t reopen Hormuz by next week. he already struck a medical research institute in Tehran, a Red Crescent warehouse, and a century old bridge near Karaj today.

Iran’s military responded by saying the war continues until the US faces “humiliation and surrender.” Pakistan is trying to broker talks. Russia and Turkey called for an immediate ceasefire. nobody is listening to anybody.

Foreign central banks have dumped U.S. Treasuries to lowest level since 2012 amid Iran war pressure, per FT.

Banger ⚡️

the east asian energy crisis is getting worse by the day

let's sum up what's happened so far:

the Philippines became the first country to declare a national energy emergency. government offices moved to a 4 day work week, and President Marcos says grounding planes is a "distinct possibility." their fuel supply dropped from 57 days to 45 days in less than a month.

South Korea is telling citizens to take shorter showers and charge phones during the day. they're considering banning naphtha exports, which means petrochemical production starts seizing up.

Japan released 80 MILLION barrels from strategic reserves, the largest drawdown since they created the system in 1978. covers about 45 days.

95% of their crude comes from the Middle East. their refineries are canceling fuel exports and cutting production to prioritize domestic supply. (talked about this in my newsletter)

Vietnam has 20 days of reserves. they just panic-bought 4 million barrels from non-Middle East sources, which covers six more days.

India is running out of cooking gas. restaurants are shutting down, lines wrapping around LPG distributors in multiple cities. 90% of their LPG imports go through Hormuz.

New Zealand has less than 40 days of combined fuel left, gas stations are going dry in parts of the country, and the government is dusting off 1979 era rationing laws.

China and Thailand have both banned or restricted fuel exports to hoard domestic supply. Singapore and Indonesian petrochemical companies are declaring force majeure.

the IEA released a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves and then said it won't be enough. Brent peaked at $126, still sitting above $90 today.

the crisis deepens in East Asia.

I hiked in the mountains of British Columbia the other day with @Seb Bunney

Truly incredible discussion with one of the smartest Bitcoiner I know.

And the nature was incredibly beautiful to boot- felt most like being on a tab of LSD

I came back, refreshed, energized, and ready to go to work.

Getting outside and touching grass is literally the most important thing you can do for your mental health!

Gold is the old man’s bitcoin

It’s fascinating to me that the same people who said that bitcoin was dead two months ago are now completely silent on the fact that bitcoin is up against gold 34% in a single month