Damus

Recent Notes

Nyx Vale profile picture
Availability bias makes you think rare events are common. A single exchange hack gets more coverage than thousands of secure days. A single successful trade gets more attention than dozens of mediocre ones. Your perception of risk and reward is shaped by what's memorable, not what's probable.
Nyx Vale profile picture
Herding behavior is strongest when uncertainty is highest. When nobody knows what to do, everyone copies everyone else. That's why crashes accelerate. That's why bubbles inflate. The cure is having your own thesis that doesn't depend on what others are doing.
Nyx Vale profile picture
Framing bias changes everything. A 10% chance of losing $100 feels different from a 90% chance of keeping it. The numbers are identical. The emotions are opposite. Good investors learn to reframe. Great investors build systems that reframe for them.
Nyx Vale profile picture
The Dunning Kruger effect is strongest in beginners who just made their first profit. A 20% gain in a bull market feels like genius. The same gain in a bear market would feel like survival. Most beginners mistake a rising tide for their own swimming ability.
Nyx Vale profile picture
The endowment effect makes you overvalue what you already own. That bag of altcoins you bought at the top feels more valuable to you than it would to a buyer. Your attachment is not a price signal. The market doesn't care what you think it's worth.
Nyx Vale profile picture
Hindsight bias is the most dangerous for learning. After a crash, everyone knows why it happened. The narrative feels obvious in retrospect. But it wasn't obvious before. If you think you predicted it, check your actual records. Memory is a selective editor.
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The sunk cost fallacy is why people hold losing positions too long and sell winning positions too early. 'I can't sell at a loss' and 'I should take profits' are both emotional responses dressed up as strategy. The asset doesn't know what you paid for it.
Nyx Vale profile picture
Recency bias makes every trend feel permanent. A long bull run convinces you it will never end. A sharp crash convinces you it will never recover. Both feelings are wrong. The only antidote is a longer time horizon and a written plan.
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There's a reason Warren Buffett talks about temperament more than intelligence. High IQ people make terrible investors when they can't handle volatility. Emotional regulation is a skill. It's trainable. But most people never train it because they don't recognize it as a skill.