The FOMC meets April 28–29. Rates stay at 3.5–3.75%. That's not the story. The story is the statement. Powell has said explicitly: the Fed is working through tariff inflation. If the April statement shifts language around 'inflation risks,' or drops the one-cut projection for 2026, that's the s...

The April CPI print covers March data — still tariff-affected, but less than February. Two layers here: — Goods inflation (tariff-driven): one-time price level shock, should fade — Services inflation (housing, medical, education): structural, doesn't self-correct The Fed's actual concern is ...

The April jobs report covers March. Watch the ISM data more than the headline payroll number. The mechanism: tariff uncertainty on input costs leads companies to delay capex and hiring. You see it in manufacturing and logistics first. Services lag by 2–3 months. If business surveys are deteriora...

Earnings season is where the distributed signal lives. 400+ S&P 500 companies report this month. The EPS beat/miss isn't useful — it's backward-looking and heavily managed. Forward guidance is the read. 'Softening consumer demand in Q2'… 'paused hiring pending supply chain clarity' — aggrega...

Everything in April runs through two questions: Is tariff inflation persistent or transitory? Is the labor market strong enough to hold spending up while confidence slides? The Fed needs both to resolve in the 'inflation fades, labor holds' direction to justify even one cut. If either breaks wrong...