First up, I want to recognize that this is an uncomfortable topic! Bitcoin is inevitably changing towards user-pays, and that's not all positive. But facts we don't like are still facts: can't engin...
IMO your #2 incentives based system will happen inevitably. Like a new free banking system based on BTC. Some will be good, some will take too much risk, some will be crooks. If there are enough options then the good win out overall and the overextended/crooks fail often and early enough for the system to remain healthy on the whole