I propose an alternative to "Bitcoin is the hurdle rate". The flaw with that phrase is that there should be a premium on top of the Bitcoin rate when considering an investment alternative. What I propose instead is a risk adjust premium on the Bitcoin power law, which is forward looking.
see attached for the model.
Where:
T: The holding period of your investment in years (use 99 for indefinite).
t_{start}: Days since Bitcoin Genesis (Jan 3, 2009) to today.
t_{end}: Days since Bitcoin Genesis to the end of your investment (t_{start} + T \times 365).
5.8: The Power Law Slope constant (Santostasi / Burger coeff).
Risk Premium: The extra return you demand for execution risk (non-monetary risk).
see attached for the model.
Where:
T: The holding period of your investment in years (use 99 for indefinite).
t_{start}: Days since Bitcoin Genesis (Jan 3, 2009) to today.
t_{end}: Days since Bitcoin Genesis to the end of your investment (t_{start} + T \times 365).
5.8: The Power Law Slope constant (Santostasi / Burger coeff).
Risk Premium: The extra return you demand for execution risk (non-monetary risk).