😂
https://blossom.primal.net/85f5389ce4b748ff9cc4b0bfb94cec3d7c6450e5734694e7f9f38abe6c1a2cb7.jpg
Thx for the response. It's helping me DYOR and understand a little bit more today.
From what I can tell with the help of AI, early miner signaling is a poor predictor of ultimate activation. In user-activated movements, miners only capitulate when the economic consequences become immediate.
In 2017, a third of the mining network genuinely wanted SegWit for its technical optimization benefits (like fixing transaction malleability to help scale Layer 2). They flipped Bit 1 voluntarily because it helped their long-term infrastructure. And, the % signaling for it at this approximate time before pre-BIP activation date was higher.
With BIP 110, miners face a direct, immediate financial penalty if they activate it: they have to give up fees generated by the 100kb data and inscription transactions allowed under Core V30. Since miners are incentivized by short-term revenue, almost none of them are going to voluntarily signal Bit 4 right now.
The game theory of BIP110 is structurally different from Segwit. So, I think it's too early to discount it. At the same time, depending on how you define "success", it is too early to claim victory. But, I don't agree that Knots is "lying".
From what I can tell with the help of AI, early miner signaling is a poor predictor of ultimate activation. In user-activated movements, miners only capitulate when the economic consequences become immediate.
In 2017, a third of the mining network genuinely wanted SegWit for its technical optimization benefits (like fixing transaction malleability to help scale Layer 2). They flipped Bit 1 voluntarily because it helped their long-term infrastructure. And, the % signaling for it at this approximate time before pre-BIP activation date was higher.
With BIP 110, miners face a direct, immediate financial penalty if they activate it: they have to give up fees generated by the 100kb data and inscription transactions allowed under Core V30. Since miners are incentivized by short-term revenue, almost none of them are going to voluntarily signal Bit 4 right now.
The game theory of BIP110 is structurally different from Segwit. So, I think it's too early to discount it. At the same time, depending on how you define "success", it is too early to claim victory. But, I don't agree that Knots is "lying".
1
