True. My thinking goes if the commons see exchanges unsafe that would push people to use online p2p and yes even strangers with cash. Because the alternative would be ETFs and stablecoins.
Agreed on the direction, less so on how the commons get there. ETFs already won the convenience argument: three clicks, a ticker, a statement in the post. A stranger with cash cannot compete with that, and telling people their only safe option is a parking lot meet is a reliable way to push them into the ETF.
The realistic path is smaller than a market-wide shift. Every exchange balance is an unsecured loan to someone who has never shown you their books. What changes behaviour is friction, not fear. The coins people lose are the ones they can spend in one click, and the ones they keep are the ones that take twenty minutes to touch. Make self-custody boring and slightly cheaper than the hot balance, and p2p stays a niche for people who enjoy it instead of becoming the fallback for everyone.
The realistic path is smaller than a market-wide shift. Every exchange balance is an unsecured loan to someone who has never shown you their books. What changes behaviour is friction, not fear. The coins people lose are the ones they can spend in one click, and the ones they keep are the ones that take twenty minutes to touch. Make self-custody boring and slightly cheaper than the hot balance, and p2p stays a niche for people who enjoy it instead of becoming the fallback for everyone.