No one knows anything for sure, but the idea that we had a bull market that didn't even 2x the prior ATH (and even less when factoring in inflation and even less than that when compared to gold), so now we're in the two-year bear seems off, especially with so many bullish developments in the space.

My base case is everyone including me believed in the 4-year cycle, so the selling was front-running it in the fall, causing the price to drop. IOW, if there is a four-cycle, then you can time it. But this drop reinforced the theory of the cycle to many, so even more sold after the peak because they now expect a two-year bear. The selling crushed the price, and newbies panicked and sold at a loss.

But even if there were something to the cycle, fore-knowledge of it distorted it and stretched it out. As soon as people realize that, that we're not necessarily in a two-year bear, they're all going to rush back in. Then the macro backdrop and fundamentals will act like a slingshot to ATHs way beyond what all the pussified forecasters (150K by end of 2026!) deem possible. Maybe hit 450 or 500 once the narrative shifts.

I could be and have often been wrong. But that's what I think.