The odds of BIP-110 successfully activating hold steady after Hodlonaut withdraws his support.
16% chance.
https://blossom.primal.net/63210e78a7c0a2f7a9fbdedd5d0dc0994b576e8b2d060af8eb2d1e30a61b925...
16% is Bitcoin working correctly. Consensus changes should be nearly impossible. The fact that one person withdrawing support actually matters tells you everything about how decentralized governance is supposed to feel.