"If one is sophisticated enough to call the top vs the bottom of course"
I'm certainly not sophisticated enough, I go with the value of the bitcoin at the time of four year drawdown of expenses.
...
I know of a few people that have technical skills they not only trust, but also use, in order to trade in and out of Bitcoin over a multi-year time horizon
But it's certainly not easy
The issue with the approach of simply taking a timeline is what happens if the bull/bear market cycle trend gets broken? Could we never have a bear market again?
Personally I think the fact we have programmed scarcity will mean we see a consistent inflation and deflation
No doubt though, taking some profits when you've made a good gain, in an size that means you don't need to take any more for 4 years, is a great bet
But it's certainly not easy
The issue with the approach of simply taking a timeline is what happens if the bull/bear market cycle trend gets broken? Could we never have a bear market again?
Personally I think the fact we have programmed scarcity will mean we see a consistent inflation and deflation
No doubt though, taking some profits when you've made a good gain, in an size that means you don't need to take any more for 4 years, is a great bet