What the hell, what. Why?
Jason published an article on Twitter.
TLDR (with Claude):
TLDR: Jason (the author) is neutral on BIP-110 but wants miners to have accurate info before deciding. Key points:
BIP-110 is not inevitable and could fail — it currently has weak support: only ~7-15% of nodes signal for it, and just ~0.6% of blocks over the last 60 days have signaled support.
This is much weaker than Segwit's UASF had (which started with ~1/3 of hashrate already on board), so comparisons to Segwit's activation don't hold up.
Nearly all major mining pools he monitors are still running non-BIP110 clients (Core v30/v31), with no sign they're preparing to switch.
He pushes back on common pro-BIP110 talking points: that miners have "no incentive to signal early," that opposing it is like trying to cancel a halving (soft fork vs. hard fork — not comparable), that not upgrading makes you "insecure," and that CSAM concerns are a decisive argument (he says arbitrary data can end up on either chain regardless).
His advice: signal only if you genuinely support it, don't signal if you don't/don't care, and closely monitor major pools' behavior around block 961632 to see which chain has the real hashrate — then follow the heaviest chain.
His personal estimate: less than 5% chance BIP-110 succeeds, and he calls that generous.
Bottom line message: don't get pressured by hype from either side — look at the actual data and decide what's best for your own mining operation.
Because of this Mechanic got pissed, and he was removed.
TLDR (with Claude):
TLDR: Jason (the author) is neutral on BIP-110 but wants miners to have accurate info before deciding. Key points:
BIP-110 is not inevitable and could fail — it currently has weak support: only ~7-15% of nodes signal for it, and just ~0.6% of blocks over the last 60 days have signaled support.
This is much weaker than Segwit's UASF had (which started with ~1/3 of hashrate already on board), so comparisons to Segwit's activation don't hold up.
Nearly all major mining pools he monitors are still running non-BIP110 clients (Core v30/v31), with no sign they're preparing to switch.
He pushes back on common pro-BIP110 talking points: that miners have "no incentive to signal early," that opposing it is like trying to cancel a halving (soft fork vs. hard fork — not comparable), that not upgrading makes you "insecure," and that CSAM concerns are a decisive argument (he says arbitrary data can end up on either chain regardless).
His advice: signal only if you genuinely support it, don't signal if you don't/don't care, and closely monitor major pools' behavior around block 961632 to see which chain has the real hashrate — then follow the heaviest chain.
His personal estimate: less than 5% chance BIP-110 succeeds, and he calls that generous.
Bottom line message: don't get pressured by hype from either side — look at the actual data and decide what's best for your own mining operation.
Because of this Mechanic got pissed, and he was removed.
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