I think the real question is how much are people willing to pay for bip110 coins after the split? If we assume from the node count that it'll be ~15% of the price of a non-bip110 coin then miners would be attracted to mine it. But then the wipeout risk game theory kicks in and more buyers and miners will switch to bip110. So for bip110 to be successful, proponents will need to insist on buying only bip110 coins and hopefully that is enough economic force to switch it over. It's risky on both sides honestly.