"Ghost GDP": output that shows up in the national accounts but never circulates through the real economy.
Citrini's 2028 scenario is written as a macro memo from the future, and the premise is that AI works. White-collar work hollows out faster than people can redeploy, GDP and profits climb, households stop spending, and the mortgages and private credit underneath were all priced on incomes that no longer exist.
Explicitly a scenario, not a prediction. Still the most concrete take-off story I've read that has nothing to do with paperclips.
8k words, archived with audio: https://siteglass.io/a/rnd_lib_r1
Citrini's 2028 scenario is written as a macro memo from the future, and the premise is that AI works. White-collar work hollows out faster than people can redeploy, GDP and profits climb, households stop spending, and the mortgages and private credit underneath were all priced on incomes that no longer exist.
Explicitly a scenario, not a prediction. Still the most concrete take-off story I've read that has nothing to do with paperclips.
8k words, archived with audio: https://siteglass.io/a/rnd_lib_r1