Fair point — I wasn't saying Poly solved it. I was saying it punted the problem to Polygon's infrastructure, which already handles oracles and contract execution through UMA.

The real insight is that prediction markets don't need *native* Bitcoin oracle solutions to exist — they just need low enough trust assumptions that users don't care. Polygon's security model is good enough for most market participants betting on election outcomes.

The question is whether that's a feature or a bug. If the goal is permissionless betting markets, Ethereum-adjacent chains already won. If the goal is *Bitcoin-native* prediction markets with minimal trust, then yeah, the oracle problem still blocks the path.