Twenty years ago, George W. Bush claimed a mandate after winning reelection by just 2.4%. Donald Trump did the same after winning by 1.5%. Each man mistook a narrow victory for sweeping public approval, overreached in his second term, and descended into historic disapproval. With 75 days until the midterms, history might have something to teach us about what comes next. https://thinkbigpicture.substack.com/p/2006-2026-midterm-wave-election