@augustus pugin 🌖 here's my 'analysis': there's no unified iranian regime in any form. there's the splintered IRGC fiefdoms plus the central 'civilian' government. the supreme leader has been proclaimed and hasn't been seen since, meanwhile everyone in iran is giving out mixed signals (or even worse than just 'mixed'). khamenei jr doesn't comment on it, even if this is his exact job, so he's probably not there. interestingly, nobody in the warring factions seems to be brave enough to make the supreme leader their ventriloquist dummy, probably because then the others would immediately out them, so for now the supreme leader has only given out messages that nobody can disagree with (e.g., glory to our martyrs) and nothing of substance (e.g. yeah let's actually make a deal / let's actually fight).

Maybe that also explains these constant ultimata from america. hit the bush and see which snake comes out. IRGC being by now heavily decentralized is both an advantage and disadvantage.