FEDERAL RESERVE ADMITS NEW KALSHI IS A BETTER FORECASTER THAN PROFESSIONAL ECONOMISTS
A new Fed study reveals Kalshi’s forecasts for the federal funds rate and CPI have outperformed both Fed funds futures and professional economist surveys.
Unlike traditional tools, Kalshi provides a continuously updated full probability distribution rather than a single point estimate.
Notably, the most likely outcome in Kalshi’s distribution has matched the actual fed funds rate on the day of every FOMC meeting since 2022.
A new Fed study reveals Kalshi’s forecasts for the federal funds rate and CPI have outperformed both Fed funds futures and professional economist surveys.
Unlike traditional tools, Kalshi provides a continuously updated full probability distribution rather than a single point estimate.
Notably, the most likely outcome in Kalshi’s distribution has matched the actual fed funds rate on the day of every FOMC meeting since 2022.
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