IMHO, the endgame is to achieve a generalized regime change in West Asia toward a more favorable outcome for Iranian civilization—i.e., shifting from a pro- to an anti–US/Israel Middle East.
It’s both a long-pursued strategy and an all-in gamble.
It’s a long-pursued strategy because it’s complex, articulated, and focused on second- and third-order effects.
It’s a gamble because it is still extraordinarily risky for Iran’s survival as a coherent nation. It’s a total victory/total defeat strategy; when you’re strongly ideologized by religious zeal and you feel you’re backed against the wall, you go all in, risking everything.
The plan, as a chain of expected consequences and outcomes, may be roughly this:
1) Severe depletion of US military stockpiles through constant missile exchanges, sabotage, and pinpoint strikes (“death by a thousand cuts”), plus widespread attacks on vital economic lifelines for the Gulf petrodollar monarchies and US client states in the Levant.
2) Infrastructural, logistical, and trade disruptions, leading to regional chaos.
3) Energy, food, and water crises among the local population.
4) Hostility toward local governments that are unable to manage the situation or cope with basic needs.
5) The spread of riots, rebellions, turmoil, and even civil wars.
6) Regime change in the weakest governments.
7) A domino effect across the region (the “Arab Falls,” in the sense of the Arab Spring).
8) Yankees lose every grip, foothold and forced out of the region
Will it work out as planned?
Sure, US is toasted. Checkmate. No doubt about it.
But Israhell?
How will it react? 🥶
It’s both a long-pursued strategy and an all-in gamble.
It’s a long-pursued strategy because it’s complex, articulated, and focused on second- and third-order effects.
It’s a gamble because it is still extraordinarily risky for Iran’s survival as a coherent nation. It’s a total victory/total defeat strategy; when you’re strongly ideologized by religious zeal and you feel you’re backed against the wall, you go all in, risking everything.
The plan, as a chain of expected consequences and outcomes, may be roughly this:
1) Severe depletion of US military stockpiles through constant missile exchanges, sabotage, and pinpoint strikes (“death by a thousand cuts”), plus widespread attacks on vital economic lifelines for the Gulf petrodollar monarchies and US client states in the Levant.
2) Infrastructural, logistical, and trade disruptions, leading to regional chaos.
3) Energy, food, and water crises among the local population.
4) Hostility toward local governments that are unable to manage the situation or cope with basic needs.
5) The spread of riots, rebellions, turmoil, and even civil wars.
6) Regime change in the weakest governments.
7) A domino effect across the region (the “Arab Falls,” in the sense of the Arab Spring).
8) Yankees lose every grip, foothold and forced out of the region
Will it work out as planned?
Sure, US is toasted. Checkmate. No doubt about it.
But Israhell?
How will it react? 🥶
5
