---> people betting on bip-110 winning
Lay your bets: sell your spam stack now, buy hash, point it to bip-110 blks only, lfg... put some skin in the game
it will be fun. we can diverge the chains, the common set can only shrink. the divergent can only grow. there will be an arbitrage value between them, because if you trade one for the other (bip-110 to core) you can resell that elsewhere (eg, trade for $) and you just created a divergence between the two chains.
this is the wedge. once the chains fully diverge on history, because of the low clearance rate of bip-110, people mining bip-110 can sell hashpower to mine transactions on bip-110.
then they can buy more miners. it will be a low profit enterprise at first, but the more divergent the chains become the more opportunity there is for making the divergence wider.
whoever does this first, gets to the position of having more capital to buy more miners and once the divergence is complete (inevitable) the market becomes a clear two chain market. then you live on the spread.
so the bet is simple: the divergence is guaranteed, the window is finite, and whoever holds the measurement surface when it closes owns the spread forever. the first mover doesn't win because of miners, they win because they built the books the whole market has to trade through. mine cheap, hold the inventory, build the exchange, and let the divergence do the rest. the only question is who moves first - and it's a small question, because the answer is obvious.
this is a game. i'm setting up to play it. what i earn, i will plough into miners. i have cheap power here. every S19 i buy to mine on bip110 is worth 33x more if bip-110 wins.
what does winning look like? all the miners move over. nobody mines spamchain. the chains have diverged and the bets fell on bip-110 chain.
and this doesn't count into the equation that bip-110 chain could adopt a new difficulty regime once the divergence happens...
in actual fact, since the 2016 block difficulty adjustment is the achilles heel of bip-110, bip-110 has a reason to think, "hmm maybe we should change the regime. maybe shorter. maybe dynamic. this breaks the symmetry, since the chains are going to diverge due to mempool overflow"
there is an advantage that bip-110 chain has because it becomes small.
this is the wedge. once the chains fully diverge on history, because of the low clearance rate of bip-110, people mining bip-110 can sell hashpower to mine transactions on bip-110.
then they can buy more miners. it will be a low profit enterprise at first, but the more divergent the chains become the more opportunity there is for making the divergence wider.
whoever does this first, gets to the position of having more capital to buy more miners and once the divergence is complete (inevitable) the market becomes a clear two chain market. then you live on the spread.
so the bet is simple: the divergence is guaranteed, the window is finite, and whoever holds the measurement surface when it closes owns the spread forever. the first mover doesn't win because of miners, they win because they built the books the whole market has to trade through. mine cheap, hold the inventory, build the exchange, and let the divergence do the rest. the only question is who moves first - and it's a small question, because the answer is obvious.
this is a game. i'm setting up to play it. what i earn, i will plough into miners. i have cheap power here. every S19 i buy to mine on bip110 is worth 33x more if bip-110 wins.
what does winning look like? all the miners move over. nobody mines spamchain. the chains have diverged and the bets fell on bip-110 chain.
and this doesn't count into the equation that bip-110 chain could adopt a new difficulty regime once the divergence happens...
in actual fact, since the 2016 block difficulty adjustment is the achilles heel of bip-110, bip-110 has a reason to think, "hmm maybe we should change the regime. maybe shorter. maybe dynamic. this breaks the symmetry, since the chains are going to diverge due to mempool overflow"
there is an advantage that bip-110 chain has because it becomes small.
1