Damus
Dr. Jeff profile picture
Dr. Jeff
@DrJeff
Just got triggered by another bitcoin analyst write-up.

So, for like the zillionth time...

The last six months of price consolidation "at or near the 2021 highs" is NOT ATYPICAL OR UNUSUAL if you understand that:

1. The 2021 bitcoin price high of approximately $69k was an (abnormally low) anomaly, historically-speaking... and *should have* been closer to $125k.

2. The anomaly was caused primarily by China's sudden and effective ban of Bitcoin mining, which caused the hash rate to drop precipitously by approximately 50% in the spring/summer months of 2021. By the time hash rate recovered, the liquidity and leverage wave of late 2021 had reached its peak, limiting further upside price action.

3. Once understood, the current post-halving rangebound consolidation of approximately 40-60% of $125k (range: $50k-75k) is TOTALLY NORMAL and quite similar to 2H 2016 and 2H 2020 price action.

Hopefully this makes sense and is helpful to those who are despairing and/or are new to bitcoin.

Cheers. 🍻
3113❤️73🤙33💜2🚀2🧡2🎯1
penglunds · 87w
I wouldn’t spend so much time and energy on these “bitcoin analysts” 😅 It’s not like they’re getting paid to be right
SuiGenerisJohn · 87w
So, you are saying it's not so over?
Bitshack · 87w
Well you can add to that downward pressure. FTX selling client coin to keep the price down.
Hans Karlsborn · 87w
Nah. Bitcoin power law is more credible
TallBrian · 87w
So in the coming bull do we 10x off the current base or off what should have been the ATH in 21? (Give me a juicy answer, I’m having a rough day). 🤣
todd · 87w
I have wondered if the COVID panic and subsequent awareness of BTC actually drove the BTC higher than it would have gone otherwise. Perhaps people had more time to look into Bitcoin. Perhaps realizing that we have been gas-lit for decades. Just wondering, that's all.
₿ennett · 87w
Thanks Jeff
AfterSound · 87w
Also explains why we hit a new ATH before the halving since it wasn’t the ‘real’ top of 2021.
Casey R · 87w
EXACTLY! Thank you.
Herpaderpa · 87w
Spot on!
BitcoinCarni · 86w
Where does that put this cycle top?
The Bitcoin Chef · 83w
You are as always a clear voice in the fog of fud nostr:npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l thank you for your insight and helping to keep me on the straight and narrow path 🫡
IdahoPuma · 83w
Do you see any indication that China will unban BTC?
Adam Flesher · 83w
My contrarian view is that BTC price action of the last 4 years and going forward has a lot more to do with major events (Covid, FTX, ETFs, etc) Whatever the next major event is will have a lot more impact on price than the old halving cycles.